Welcome new readers! I greatly appreciate the shout-out Dylan gave on the UTMB Final Thoughts & Predictions Show yesterday. With OCC starting in a few hours, I wanted to quickly refresh my heatmaps using the most up-to-date data.
Weekend at a Glance
Saturday still seems fairly cool, compared to the rest of the week. Since pure temperatures aren’t the biggest story this week, I tried to quickly gather rainfall and windspeed metrics as well. (Bear with me, I’m new at pulling, displaying, and interpreting these metrics.)
Forecasted Wind
Looking at max wind might not make the most sense? I dunno. Maybe someone might find this helpful. Although Friday is warmer than projected, perhaps the wind might offset some of that heat?
Forecasted Rainfall
Similar to Friday being very windy, it’s expected to be somewhat wet as well:
But this grossly over-represents the rainfall, see the CCC preview, below (most of the rainfall seems to come from 6 - 8 pm, or 18:00 - 20:00). CCC runners might not seem much of this rainfall, but UTMB runners will (unless conditions change.)
OCC - Thursday
Conditions for OCC seem significantly warmer than originally forecasted. The high at Orsieres was originally forecasted 27°C / 81°F and is now 30°C / 87°F , while the high for Chamonix was originally forecasted to be 26°C / 79°F and is now 29 °C / 87°F:
Update: here is the drift in the forecasted max temperature at each aid station:
CCC - Friday
Friday’s CCC appears to be both cooler at the start of the race, and warmer later in the race, than originally forecasted, but off only by a handful of degrees. Friday is still forecasted to be warmer than last year, but cooler than 2024.
Update: here is the drift in the forecasted max temperature at each aid station:
As noted above, Friday is also expected to be wet, so here is the expected rainfail at each aid station throughout the day:
Note that the rain is projected to starts on Friday around 6:00 pm / 18:00, roughly when UTMB begins. Thus, runners may have 2-3 wet hours at the beginning of the race.
Wind, however, seems fairly consistent throughout the day, easing up at night-time: (again, these are max wind speeds; I should think about a way to better display min-mean-max at the same time):
UTMB - Saturday
Looks like Saturday is forecasted to be slightly cooler in some spots, warmer in other spots, compared to the Open-Meteo forecast from late last week.
Update: here is the drift in the forecasted max temperature at each aid station:
